Advance coorperate finance Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Advance coorperate finance - Essay Example Crown’s (Australia) FCFF grows continuously for the five years after which it takes a slight downward trend. This means at the fifth year of its operation it reaches maximum profitability level of the company beyond which level the expenses of the company increases resulting in decease in the FCFF of the company. The company projection has been made on the basis of both DCF and DDM approach where the former is 81.24 and the later is 50.27 which means that the market has been pessimistic for the duration of which the discounted cash flow and the dividend discount model has been computed. Contrarily the intrinsic value of the company being $4.46 as against the market price of the company at $9.06 indicates that the company shares are overvalued. Thus it will turn out to be beneficial for the sellers of the shares, while investors thinking of buying the shares of Crown should wait till the market price of the company dips a little. The P/E ratio of Crown is 20.46 while that of CN TY is 20.85; through this we can say that CNTY is in a better position than Crown. However, the higher P/E ratio is also an indication of the risk of the company being high as the market value of the company has fallen in comparison to the earning per share of the company. This effect can be brought about through the buyback of shares. (Cassia, Plati & Vismara 1-10). Mergers and Acquisitions Acquisition is a process which a firm enters into to gain control of the target company that is being acquired. It is one of the growth strategies of the company through which the company plans to expand its business. Crown Limited has acquired the Aspinall’s Club which is a high-end casino in London. This has enabled Crown to successfully operate in London while catering to the VIP business class leveraging the marketing and the sales capabilities of Crown in the international market. But as per the expectations of Crowns acquisition the returns for the company has not turned out to be a remarkable one. The other acquisition of the company is the Holiday Inn hotel which was entered into by the company on 11th May, 2011 to possess the assets in Perth that amounted to approximately $79 million. For the settlement of the equity derivatives the company acquired both Echo Entertainment Group and Tabcorp Holdings Limited. Most of the acquisition of the company did not show incredible results resulting in the increase in the capital expenditure of the company (Crown Limited, 2011). Segment Report The segmentation of the Crown Australia was done on the basis of geographically from Melbourne and Burswood. The major portion of the company’s sales is generated from Melbourne which is 71% while that of Burswood is 29%. The acquisition of the casino led to the VIP program. But due to heavy impact of stiff competition both Crown Burswood and Melbourne were affected by the reduction in the VIP program. Across the two properties of Crown in Australia, the main floor gaming revenue shot to 56% while its PM was 39% over the year in 2011. However, the non-gaming segmentation policy of Crown adopted by the company boosted its revenue in the non-gaming section by 22% while the PM was 16% benefitting the full year operation of the company. On the other hand, the strategy adopted by the company to source new customers from China helped them earn better VIP program revenue of $31 million from Crown Melbourne. Contrarily the major operational revenue of the company came from main floor gaming segment where Crown Melbourne gave $930,657 million while Crown Burswood added $413,770 million. Hedging Policy The company hedges the derivative instruments but does not use the process for trading purposes. The process of hedging is carried on fair value and the cash

Exploring an art Object Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

Exploring an art Object - Essay Example The contemporary art objects may include mass-produced things, transient materials, appropriate metaphors, and many other things. The object which I have selected for this assignment as a piece of art is ‘‘Kaftan’’. This paper aims to conduct an in-depth study and exploration of the object. Moreover, the paper will include different examples, sources, research work, interpretational perspectives etc. The visual design of this art piece which is selected for this assignment is a bit different as it is not a painting or a sculpture. ‘Kaftan’ is a cut of apparel; a long coat like garment or a loose dress with long wide sleeves which has been worn by humans for thousands of years. It usually reaches the ankles or floor at times (exceptions are there in different cultures). The cloth which is used in its making is usually and majorly silk and cashmere, however, sometimes cotton is also used (Torstrick and Faier). It has noticed some alterations, modi fications with the period of time and is a part of almost every culture across the globe. However, it varies in style and proportion in different cultures and the way they carry it. ... Similar is the case with ‘Kaftan’ as it has been doing it all. It is a single dress fulfilling all the requirements of an art object in different and unique manner. It has been telling different stories and cultures from the past to the present in a special way. Different artist portray their thoughts and creativity through fashion and clothing. It is now becoming as a medium for artists as significant as painting or any other (Chambers). Art has also been inspiring many lives for thousands of years. However, the portrayal of art back then was done in a different manner as compared to the present world. If we travel back in the history, then since the Ottoman Empire, the usage of ‘Kaftan’ has been of greater significance. It has been a part of many lives since then. Many people wear it as an identity (China); many wear it to hide themselves (Middle East), while many wear it as a fashion statement; the pop culture (West). It has different names as it travels from the west to the east (Faroqhi). In the West, the fashion started in the era of ‘Hippies’ in the 60’s; the Western ‘Kaftan’ has names like ‘bonjour’ and is a loose dress with wide sleeves it depicted the pop culture of that era. In the Middle East, the dress was worn and was famous since the Mughal and Ottoman Empire, and the Mughal Kings and Sultans used to wear it with a turban. At present, the Muslim women wear it as a piece of apparel which covers their body and hides it completely; it is normally called as ‘Abaya’. Moving on towards the Far East, then the Chinese wear it as a national dress and their national identity and the only difference is of a belt and the quality of the ‘Kaftan’

Individual Project Criminal Evidence Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Individual Project Criminal Evidence - Essay Example It is a basic rule of evidence that when the terms of an agreement have reduced to writing, it is considered as containing all the terms agreed upon, and there can be, as between the parties, no evidence of such term other than the contents of the written agreement per se. A classic example of a documentary evidence is a contract. Parol or oral evidence refers to the testimony of a witness made before the judicial court. An example of this type of evidence is the testimony of the victim in a rape case. One of the popular cases in Canada where DNA testing was allegedly used was the case of Dr. John Schneeberger. The latter is a doctor who raped one of his sedated patients in 1992 and intentionally left semen on the victim's underwear. The police immediately got blood samples from Schneeberger's blood and compared the same the DNA to the DNA from the semen found at the crime scene on three different occasions. However, the matching proved to be negative. It was found out later on thru other evidence that Dr. John Schneeberger inserted a Penrose drain into his own arm thru surgery and then filled the same with a foreign blood and anticoagulants. Anticoagulants is a type of drug that prevents the clotting of the blood while a Penrose drain, according to Wikipedia, is a surgical device placed in a wound to drain and prevent the build up of fluid. This in turn resulted to the degradation of the value of DNA evidence in criminal cases since DNA samples may be faked and planted, just like in Schneeberger case. In this case, the DNA sample, although previously admitted by the court, failed to prove the suspicions earlier made by the police authorities. DNA evidence is a real or object evidence since it is a material evidence that is addressed directly to the senses of the court. Although logically, judges and justices may not appreciate its value without the corresponding interpretation and testimony of scientists expert in the field, it can stand alone in court as evidence and therefore maintains its classification as a real or object evidence. In most states in the United States, DNA evidence are admissible in court even without the corresponding expert testimony. However in some jurisdictions, the expert testimony plays a big role in determining the admissibility of DNA as evidence. Personally, I do not agree with the use of DNA as evidence in proving the guilt or innocence of an accused. There are relevant scientific studies where it was concluded that DNA testing is not 100% perfect although the ratio of its reliability reaches one is to 5 million. Criminal prosecution is totally different from civil ones. It is the life and liberty of the accused which is at stake. It has been said that it is better to leave a criminal free rather than punish an innocent man. In this case, no matter how small the percentage of the probable mistake may be committed in the DNA testing and studies, the same cannot justify prosecution and persecution of innocent people. It is totally different however in using DNA testing as a means of proving paternity, for example, as the same is civil in nature. Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA), although widely accepted in courts, are still subject to human mistakes such as the lack of control

The Port Of Durban From An Economics Perspective Economics Essay

The Port Of Durban From An Economics Perspective Economics Essay 3.1 Introduction This chapter will examine the Port of Durban from an economics perspective and will seek to expand on the general theory presented in the literature review and apply it specifically to the Port of Durban. This chapter will also serve as a foundation for the proceeding chapter which will analyse the various CBA options and data for Durban. The ports significance and impact will be examined in the context of the South African and local economy through its income and employment generating effect. Though the quantity of cargo moving through a port is important, of more interest is the type of cargo that a port focuses on. 3.2 The South African Port Sector Before examining the Port of Durban in isolation, it would be prudent to briefly discuss the South African Port scenario in a broader sense. In South Africa, ports are considered national assets and are managed by the government run recently by SAPO. South Africa is a major sea-trading nation comprising of approximately 8 trading ports, namely, Durban, Richards Bay, East London, Port Elizabeth, Mossel Bay, Cape Town, Saldanha and the under construction Coega. South Africa has evolved into a major sea-trading nation over the last four or so decades and in 2002 handled 3.6% of world sea trade by volume. In terms of ton miles or real activity, this figure increases to 6% of global trade, placing the country within the top 12 globally and resulting in a global maritime activity share that is more than 20 fold its global GDP share. Sea trade constitutes more than 90 percent of trade in South Africa and ports play a critical social and economic role both nationally and regionally. The majo rity of the port activity is concentrated on the east coast of South Africa. A stark illustration of this fact is that Durban and Richards Bay together make up 76% of sea trade in the country. Traffic growth in the 1990s was derived from two primary regional points and sources, namely Durban from a general cargo perspective and Richards bay from a raw materials perspective. Richards Bay, which deals primarily in bulk goods, such as coal, ore and steel, has seen its annual tonnage increase from 55 million tons in 1989 to in excess of 90 million in 2000. Viewing perceived value in terms of tonnage is a flawed approach since in terms of economic linkages and value-adding, handling a ton of coal is not the same as handling a ton of refined goods. The figure below illustrates the breakdown of sea trade activity by port in South Africa. It can be seen clearly that Durban and Richards Bay are giants in comparison to the other ports. (Chasomeris, 2003 and Jones, 2002) Fig 17: Total Traffic Volume in South Africa Source: Department of Transport, 1998 and Jones, 2001 The South African Ports sector experienced significant capital intensive investment in the 1970s and 1980s, which was biased towards the bulk shipping sector. However, world trends have seen a migration towards containerisation and unitisation and South Africa is no exception, with the country utilising containers for the first time in1977. Up until 1990, the available capacity could cater for national traffic levels of approximately 1 million TEUs level. The lack of adequate container capacity, combined with growing demand, brought with it a multitude of problems. On the demand side, South Africa became a democracy and re-entered the globalised world, resulting in a noticeable rise in seaborne container volumes, due to liner carriers returning to the South African trades and increased trade liberalisation. The upsurge in volumes produces inevitable negative consequences of delays and vessel queues. By 2000 the combined amount of annual TEUs handled in South African ports was 1.8 mil lion and this was encompassed using with the same basic container quays that had been constructed in 1977. There was some limited capital investment in strategic areas in the 1990s, such as cargo extensions to bulk and neo-bulk facilities in Richards Bay. The new millennia brought with its bolder and more ambitious port investment initiatives. A new industrial hub status port in the Eastern Cape, which was earlier envisioned but never actioned upon, was now being constructed. Secondly, the Durban general cargo infrastructure has received significant upgrades and extensions such as extensions to landside facilities as well, deepening and extending cargo handling superstructure and infrastructure as well as deepening and widening the harbour entrance. Because of the age and mismatch of the cargo handling infrastructure, productivity has lagged that of international levels, resulting in congestion that is a constant feature of local ports. There were also supply side issues to deal wit h such as liner route becoming more specific and centred around hub status ports. As such, hub status ports have to provide capacity that exceeds national demand, making attainment of hub port status difficult in capacity constricted scenarios. This is compounded by the reluctance of ship-owners to migrate shorter routes such as Port Elizabeth in South Africa. South African ports relative competitive stance with their southern hemisphere counterparts can be gauged from the table below. Looking at both indicators, South African ports emerge as clear leaders on both the African and Southern Hemisphere front. Richards Bay is ranked first on the table in terms of total traffic, as it has a large amount of coal and other bulk cargoes passing through its doors. Durban, although ranked 3rd overall, is ranked 1st in the container category it is clear that Durban is the leading multi-purpose port in South Africa and the Southern Hemisphere. (Jones, 2003; Jones, 1997; Department of Transport, 1998 and Lawrence, 2000) Figure 18: African and Southern Hemisphere Port Traffic Port Total Port Traffic (m tons) Rank Container Traffic (TEUs 000s) Rank Richards Bay 91.5 1 5 15 Newcastle 73.9 2 9 14 Durban 49.7 3 1291 2 Santos 43.1 4 945 4 Sydney 24.6 5 999 3 Melbourne 22.3 6 1322 1 Casablanca 19.8 7 311 9 Abidjan 14.6 8 434 7 Auckland 13.3 9 561 6 Cape Town 11.8 10 395 8 Lagos 9.1 11 1782 11 Mombasa 8.9 12 219 10 Buenos Aires 7.8 13 716 5 Dakar 7.2 14 149 13 Port Louis 4.7 15 161 12 Source: ISL, Bremen, 2001, Jones 2003 (Selected ports, 2000) 3.3 History of the Port of Durban The port is situated on the east coast of South Africa at coordinates 31o 02E in longitudinal and at 290 52S in latitudinal terms. Trading activities in the port of Durban can be traced back since 1824, with the port quickly gaining a favoured status among seafarers amd traders due to it being a natural harbour. Interest in Durban Bay grew tremedously in the early years of its operations, with imports doubling between 1849 and 1850. This, coupled with larger vessels, resulted in a much needed expansion to the harbour entrance. Over a century later, Durban has 63 berths and 6 repair berths, which can be broadly seperated into five main segments of the port. The first segments has two piers and has a multipurpose function thats handles general, parcel and unitised cargo. The second segment of the port is located by Salisbury Island and Island View. A third segment is the Maydon Wharf area, which contains private terminals as well as terminals controlled by Transnet. The Point terminal area and the Bayhead area are the fourth segment and fifth segment respectively. Below is a picture of the port of Durban that illustrates the five segments discussed. Figure 19: The Current Layout of Durban Port Source: Google Earth, 2010 3.4 Economic Significance of the Port of Durban As, can be seen in figure 17 above, the logistical strength of the national shipping infrastructure, rests primarily in KZN. The port of Durban, like all other public ports in South Africa, is an example of a port under national jurisdiction, its official name being the National Ports Authority (NPA), thereby allowing centralised planning. Durban is a port of choice because of its infrastructure in place enabling it to be a full service general cargo and container port . In addition to this, durban is well serviced by an adequete rail and road infrastructure, which links it to the economic hub of South Africa, Gauteng. In addition to this, the KZN region is a large economic region in itself and is second only to Gauteng in South Africa. Figure 21 below, illustrates a snapshot of the South African port sector for 2009. In terms of total cargo tonnes handled, Durban has 20% of the market and is dwarfed by Richards which has more than double Durbans tonnage handled, at more than 40%. Ri chards Bay, which was constructed in the 1970s, has had an enormous impact on Durbans port planning and functions. The primary reason for its existence was to serve as high-mass export point for raw materials such as coal. Richards Bay also diversified its goods base to include, at a lower cost, goods types that were traditionally the domain of Durban such as neo-bulk cargo like steel, alloys and forest type products. At the time of Richards Bay construction, Cape-sized bulk vessels were too large to enter Durban. (Jones, 2003 and Stats SA, 2010) Figure 21: Port Cargo and Vessel Statistics in South African Ports RICHARDS BAY DURBAN CAPE TOWN SALDANHA BAY TOTAL SA PORTS Durban as a % of Total TOTAL CARGO HANDLED: 77,631,154 37,419,282 3,058,601 56,475,625 182,735,369 20% GENERAL CARGO VESSELS: 247 705 220 373 1,648 43% BULK VESSELS: 1257 930 320 921 3,603 26% CONTAINER VESSELS: 42 1883 897 784 4,233 44% TANKERS: 184 646 159 344 1,542 42% VESSEL TOTAL: 1874 4848 2440 3489 15,879 31% TOTAL TEUS HANDLED: 6,273 2,395,175 1,382,052 NA 4,334,612 55% Source: NPA, 2009 (Note table has been edited) Looking again at figure 21 above, it can be observed that even though Durban lags other ports in gross tonnage of cargo, it still has by far the most number of vessels docking. One of the major reasons for this was the emerging dominance of Richards Bay, which forced Durban to concentrate on lower-volume bulk, break-bulk and liquid-bulk. This enabled great diversity within the port in terms of cargo type as well vessel type and quantity. Additionally, vessels that carry break bulk are traditionally far smaller than that of traditional bulk, thus explaining why more vessel docking are in Durban than Richards Bay for the same amount of cargo ceterus paribus. With reference to the figures above, it can be observed that Durban has 43% of total general cargo vessels, 42% of total tankers and 44% of total container vessels. The most important figure, in relation to Durban, is that of TEUs handled since this is where its dominance and significance come to the fore. Durban has the ideal stru cture to handle containers and since Richards Bay has inadequate structure for containers, Durbans dominance in containers was from the outset. Jones (2003) show that a growing international trend of shipping lines with regards to containers is to organise trade and activities around so called hub ports which meet and cross at sub-regional transhipment nodes. This arrangement is biased for the existence of a single hub type port on the eastern shores of the Southern region of Africa. Since, Durban is the countrys major container port, is well frequented by major shipping lines, has terminal and hub status, it is quite reasonable for it to remain South Africas primary container port. The other alternatives on the eastern sea board are not really competitors when it comes to containers. Richards Bay is primarily a bulk port and does not have the adequate infrastructure to extend its activities beyond this scope. Maputo has large deviation costs from traditional shipping lines as well as limited depth and capacity. Port Elizabeth has weak land side links to Gauteng as well as having limited local demand to justify a major port there. (Suykens, 1984; Jones, 2001 and Jones, 2003) Even though Durban lags Richards Bay in terms of pure tonnage, this in itself is a poor yardstick of economic impact and significance since no account is taken of cargo value or employment propensities of infrastructure required. Generally, in terms of economic and employment impacts, general cargo provides the most followed by dry-bulk cargo and lastly liquid-bulk. Bearing this in mind, comparing two ports only on the basis of tonnage is frivolous and more specifically in Durbans case it can be seen that from a ports perspective, it handles higher valued cargo than Richards Bay. This is especially evident when one considers one job is created per 47000 tonnes of cargo handled at Richards Bay, whereas in Durban, one job is created per 7500 tonnes of cargo handled. Figure 22 below further illustrates the economic richness and opportunity that containers present. Additionally, in 2004 an average container vessel spent R2.94 million per port call, far exceeding the R1.8 million for a br eakbulk cargo vessel as well as exceeding the R1.3 million for a bunker vessel. (Suykens, 1984; Jones, 2001, Tempi, 2006 and Jones, 2003) Figure 22: Port of Fremantles Economic impact by Cargo Type Cargo Type Output ($m) Value Added ($m) Household Income ($m) Employment (no.) Direct Effects Containers 177 121 73 1331 Other General Cargo 45 30 18 340 Liquid Bulk 35 20 8 158 Dry Bulk 83 44 25 459 Other 1 1 0 7 Total 341 215 124 2294 Direct + Indirect Effects Containers 382 240 125 3195 Other General Cargo 96 59 31 800 Liquid Bulk 67 38 17 441 Dry Bulk 181 100 50 1339 Other 2 1 1 19 Total 728 440 223 5792 Source: Bureau of Economic Transport Economics Australia, 2000 As is the case with South African ports, the port of Freemantle in Australia, shown in figure 22 above, derives the most economic prosperity from containers from both a direct and indirect perspective. Even though containers account for only 13% of activity in the port, they contribute 55% to economic activity. Consequently, containers have the greatest employment generating effects, followed by dry bulk and the liquid bulk. Though dynamics differ from port to port in terms of infrastructure, administration, socioeconomics and geography, a broad consensus can be reached from the figure above encompassing a kind of rule of thumb approach. As such, containers offer the most economic opportunity for a port and since Durban already focuses on this area, it would be prudent to continue with this trend. Thus, it is quite evident that both the present and future comparative advantage of Durban port rests in the realm of containerised cargoes due to reason shown above. Also, since the port i s so aptly designed for and dependant on containerised cargo, the removal of this great economic magnifying source would be particularly devastating on the Durban region as a whole. (Jones, 2001 and Jones, 2003) Looking at figure 23 below, it can be seen that the Durban port has seen an extraordinary increase in containers, with annualised growth of between 8% and 10% for the last decade.  As was shown above, containers form an integral cog in the Durban port machine from an economics and social perspective since they provide a source of trade, income and employment. Container growth has been driven by a range of factors such as rising volumes of world trade and reduced trading barriers, the migration of cargo to containers from other handling systems, South Africas improved economic performance and rising per capita incomes.  The facets examined below are containers landed, shipped and empty and as the diagram shows, all three categories have increased from 2002-2007. The growth between 2002 and 2007 is nothing short of spectacular, but this growth has not come without costs and constraints. However, needing containers and providing adequate space for them are two entirely different thi ngs and this will be explored below. Also, we have seen that general cargo is the richest form of cargo and has the largest employment benefits. South Africa needs extended general cargo capabilities and in this respect, Durbans needs are similar to national needs. It is thus clear that Durban needs the container industry for continued survival and prosperity, but whether the container industry needs Durban as much remains to be seen. (Jones, 2003) Figure 23: Total TEUs Landed, Shipped Transhipped Source: NPA, marketing graphs, 2008 Durbans greatest strengths, namely its ideal location, good economic linkage and strong infrastructure, have also evolved to be its Achilles heel, since its popularity especially for containerized cargo, has seen demand surge amidst mostly fixed infrastructure. With the growth of sea trade demand, the real problems of Durban are the lack of adequate marine infrastructure, but its role as port with terminal capacity, and the managerial capacity and willingness to operate the present container terminal at acceptable performance levels. A supply side response by the authorities to these demand pressures has been slow and limited. The growth of containerised cargo volumes has put the ports container terminal under sustained pressure since the mid-1990s, and at times has overwhelmed available capacity. The consequences of which have been frequent queues of container vessels, unduly high berth occupancy rates, and delays to container vessels and their cargoes. The port area is inundated wi th industrial and commercial development, making space an expensive premium, above all for neo-bulk space intensive cargoes like steel and forest products. It is therefore no surprise to see certain of these cargoes migrating to Richards Bay, where space is at less of a premium. The Durban-Gauteng rail line possesses substantial spare capacity, but operating problems associated with the availability of Transnet have reduced the reliability of rail. This problem is particularly serious for certain bulk terminals that are reliant on rail since for bulk commodities rail is the cheapest and most efficient form of transport. Previously, Durbans major economic disadvantage was its inability to host Panamax size-threshold ships due to its lack of depth. However, after recent capital investments, the entrance width has been increased from 110m at its narrowest to 220m and the depth in the outer channel from 12m to approximately 19m. However, this is far from adequate and as can be seen in I rcha (2006) which states that hub status type ports must have the following in order to remain relevant: à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ Container-stacking densities of 2000-4000 TEUs per hectare; à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ Sustained ship-to-shore gantry crane productivity of 50 moves per hour; à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ Three day dwell times; à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ 30-minute truck turnaround times; à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ On-dock rail service; and à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ Water depths by the berth of 15 metres and more. Currently, Durban subscribes to one of these parameters, and if it wishes to become efficient and remain productive and relevant, authorities should try to subscribe to all of them. Doing so would require significant capital investments such as infrastructure expansions. (Lawrence, 2000; ISL, 2001; Fairplay, 2003, Ircha, 2006, Transnet, 2010 and Jones, 2003) 3.5 Multiplier Model The theory of the Keynesian multiplier was covered quite extensively in the literature review. Figure 22 above touched on the multiplier process for the port of Freemantle, but the concept will now be explored and applied in far more detail. The economic impact of port activities on the local economy can be subdivided into three broad areas. The first area is that of directly port-related or port generated activities, that would cease to exist if the port were to close. The second area is that of indirectly port-related activities and pertains to backwardly-linked services and infrastructure. The third and final broad category is termed induced effects, and is in fact the multiplier effect from other inputs. It arises as those employed in the previous two categories, re-spend their money in the local economy, thereby increasing the original economic impact. Jones (1998) conducted a study so as to ascertain the Port of Durbans economic impact on the local economy. Figure 24 below is t aken from that same study and as can be observed, 24 000 direct port related jobs from approximately 360 businesses are created through first round inputs. Of the 24 000 jobs, approximately 8500 are from Transnet, which is an indication of the significant role that the institution plays in the local region. The 24 000 figure translate into a wage bill of approximately R950 million rand in 1994 wage level. Assuming an inflation rate of 10% per annum, this figure would equate to approximately R4 Billion in 2010 terms! Coupled to this, many port activities were in fact excluded from the above calculation such as insurance, financial services, medical services and legal services. (Jones, 2003) Another reason why the employment figure is conservative is that it fails to account for the induced or multiplier effect. As shown in the literature review, the economic or employment effect is extended far beyond the initial spending impetus whereby the final round of total expenditure normally far exceed the initial input. The multiplier varies from region to region depending on the average marginal propensity to consume, taxes, and how much money is kept within the local region. Jones assumes that since the majority of port employees are in fact low to middle income earners, which is not an outrageous assumption. Bearing this in mind, an average tax rate of 20%, MPC of 0.85 and a retention rate of 0.85 is used to formulate the multiplier value. The data is substituted into the multiplier equation from the literature review and yields a multiplier value of 2.4. The port of Seattle conducted an economic impact analysis and depending on which assumptions they used, the multiplier ra nged from 2.9 to 4.4. The port of Lake Charles Harbour also conducted an economic impact study and used a multiplier of 2.6 and the port of Hastings derived a multiplier of 1.58. Thus, the figure use by Jones is in no way over the top when one looks at other port economic impact papers and it even falls on the lower end of the spectrum. The box below illustrates the calculations that were used to obtain the multiplier. At 1994 prices total income generated by the port is approximately R2.3 billion. Once again, if we assume a 10% increase per annum, in 2010 price terms, this would equate to R9.6 Billion! (Jones, 2003; Meyrick Associates, 2007 and Martin Associates, 2007) Figure 24: Multiplier for Durban (1994 prices) ÃŽÂ ± = 1 1 -c [(1-t) r] Substituting the various values = 1 1 -0.85[(1-0.2)0.85] =2.4 Calculating Equilibrium income for wages only: Yo = ÃŽÂ ±A Yo= 950 X 2.4 = R2.3 Billion Calculating Equilibrium income for all expenditures: Yo= (950+500) X 2.4 = R3.5 Billion Source: Jones, 2003 Even with the multiplier effect, the regional economic impact of the port is under estimated since wages and salaries are not the only costs in a port. Industries which provide inputs and services to port establishments are excluded. In the same paper, Jones attempts to calculate these very costs and some of the examples include paper, ropes, cranes, hooks and property costs. Jones does this by working out that on average 48% of total costs are non wage costs and based on this assumption, a 1994 figure of R500 million is generated from port related expenditure which is not linked to wages. This amount extrapolated to regional labour elasticitys, induces a labour figure of approximately 7000 jobs. The refineries around the port employ around 1800 people and the Island View area about 500 as well. Thus, as Jones rightly says, the port and port related activities generate around 40000 jobs in the local economy, a figure which eThekwini online concurs with. Looking at the box above, it c an be calculated that the total economic impact of the port is R3.5 Billion in 1994 prices. In 2010 monetary terms, this equates to roughly R14.62 Billion. Additionally, eThekwini online states that the port and related industries contributes over 20% of Durbans GDP and approximately 1.5% of national GDP! Thus, it is quite evident that the port and its related clusters are integral to the Durban community in terms of employment and social stability. (Jones, 2003 and www.thekwenionline.org.za, 2010) Figure: 25 Durban Port Employment and Output (all data at 1994 levels) Industry/Sector Number Employment Wage bill (R mill) Portnet 1 5400 240 Portnet dredging 1 112 6 Spoornet 1 3217 115 Terminal operators 11 2213 90 Liquid bulk terminals 3 275 16 CF agents 138 3600 135 Ships agents 37 1350 65 Ship chandlers 17 400 ns Container depots 3 366 13 Container parks 7 260 ns Container logistics 3 140 6 Shipowners operators 5 11002 ns Ship repairers builders 5 9603 34 Stevedores 24 1650 45 Cargo equipment suppliers 2 200 ns Road haulers >75 15001 ns Bunker services 2 110 5 Offshore services 3 80 3 Tallying services 5 1204 ns Security 3 3001 ns Marine contractors 2 114 5 Customs Excise 1 300 ns Other State 3 1001 ns TOTAL >360 23867 ~R950 Source: Jones, 2003 3.6 Constraints to Expansion As shown in Figure 18 above, Durban is the largest general cargo port in Africa and the second largest in the southern hemisphere, and Durban being a port city will benefit from any growth in international trade volumes especially of the general cargo type. Although Durbans port infrastructure is extensive, at present it suffers from critical capacity limitations. The port currently provides 63 berths that can be used for cargo related activities as well as repair facilities for a further 8-9 vessels. These capacity constraints are encountered in respect of the ports marine infrastructure, cargo-working facilities and its overall articulation with landside cargo distribution systems. The constraints are indicated in the figure below, which illustrates the situation for Durban in 2004/5, considering that the teu amount was 2,395,175 teus for 2009, it becomes clear how grave the capacity situation is. Considering how grave the capacity situation is, it is indeed surprising that only sh ort term capital investments have been undertaken over the last two decades. Towards the end of the previous century, there were some capital extensions such as gantries, larger container areas and straddle carriers. In 2002, more gantries were added as well as 20 straddle carriers. The second part of the 2002 project was the relocation and specialisation of areas within the port, namely pier 1. All these short term improvements will result in the port having a present day capacity of 2.5 million TEUs. Already in 2005 the container terminal were operating at 90% capacity and now 5 years hence, with TEUs handled being 2.4 million in 2009 or 96% capacity, there is a pressing need for Durban to increase and improve its container handling operations. (NPA, 2009 and Muller, 2004) Figure 26: Port of Durban Capacity Constraint Terminals Current traffic M ton Theoretical capacity M ton Spare Capacity Percentage used Bulk Liquids 23,800,000   Unlimited Unlimited Motor vehicles units 171,365 220,000 48,635 77.89 Coal 1,800,000 2,500,000 700,000 72 City 2,400,000 5,200,000 2,800,000 46.15 Containers 1,724,218 1,900,000 175,782 90.75 Break bulk 4,200,000 6,300,000.00 2,100,000 66.67 Total excl vehicles 33,924,218.00 16,120,000.00 5,824,417.00 Source: NPA, 2006 Though this paper views the port from

The Search for Scientific Truth Leads to God Essays -- Science Religio

The Search for Scientific Truth Leads to God At the dawn of the twenty-first century, many now realize that the opposition of science and religion has been exhausted. Today, unification of the two is imperative. The first step in this direction is recognizing that science is not the only source of knowledge; experience, spiritual discernment and spiritual experience constitute the unified process of cognizing the world. I. About the Unified Language in which the Laws of Nature are Written It began in Moscow more than forty years ago. At that time I had the chance to be the graduate student of the distinguished physicist, Nobel Prize laureate, and wonderful man, Igor Evgenievich Tamm. (1) In those days theoretical physics experienced a state of deep depression. After the success of quantum electrodynamics had astonished the imagination, further advancement was hindered by the lack of fundamentally new physical ideas. With this Igor Evgenievich was repeatedly saying to me that, by inventing different models of interactions, we impose our own "human" language on nature. But nature does not understand us, and dialogue does not come about. That is why, our primary task is to learn to "listen" to nature in order to understand its "language." But where is this language? In what it is encapsulated? It is in laws. It is in the laws of Newton, in the equations of Maxwell, in Euclidean geometry, in the laws of quantum mechanics. All these laws are "written" in some unified language. Thus at the end of 1960 there was set up a completely unusual task: to find the unified universal language in which all fundamental physical laws are written, and then, leaning on this, to review and to reassess the basis of all physics. Histor... ...ld. And, though man is the product of evolution, that evolution is purposeful and has created him in "the image and likeness of God." Our capacity for creativity and for abstract thinking, and ability to understand the World around us is not "the property of highly organized matter," but presents itself as the particle of God inserted into us. And it is not labor at all, but only the very act of inspiration, in its own way, which detached man from the rest of the humanoid family as a unique creature. Notes (1) The Memoirs on I.E. Tamm. M; Nauka. 1981. p.296. (2) Priest. Christianity and Atheism. ed. S.A. Zheludkov, K.A. Lyubarski. Brussels; 1982. p.139. (3) Theses in two volumes. V.I. ed. N. Kuzanski. M; 1979. p.66. (4) Theses in two volumes. V.I. ed. N. Kuzanski. M; 1979. p.64. (5) Religious Philosophy. ed. I.A. Iliin. M; Medium. 1994. p.100, 300.

A Game of Thrones Chapter Fifty-one

Sansa They came for Sansa on the third day. She chose a simple dress of dark grey wool, plainly cut but richly embroidered around the collar and sleeves. Her fingers felt thick and clumsy as she struggled with the silver fastenings without the benefit of servants. Jeyne Poole had been confined with her, but Jeyne was useless. Her face was puffy from all her crying, and she could not seem to stop sobbing about her father. â€Å"I'm certain your father is well,† Sansa told her when she had finally gotten the dress buttoned right. â€Å"I'll ask the queen to let you see him.† She thought that kindness might lift Jeyne's spirits, but the other girl just looked at her with red, swollen eyes and began to cry all the harder. She was such a child. Sansa had wept too, the first day. Even within the stout walls of Maegor's Holdfast, with her door closed and barred, it was hard not to be terrified when the killing began. She had grown up to the sound of steel in the yard, and scarcely a day of her life had passed without hearing the clash of sword on sword, yet somehow knowing that the fighting was real made all the difference in the world. She heard it as she had never heard it before, and there were other sounds as well, grunts of pain, angry curses, shouts for help, and the moans of wounded and dying men. In the songs, the knights never screamed nor begged for mercy. So she wept, pleading through her door for them to tell her what was happening, calling for her father, for Septa Mordane, for the king, for her gallant prince. If the men guarding her heard her pleas, they gave no answer. The only time the door opened was late that night, when they thrust Jeyne Poole inside, bruised and shaking. â€Å"They're killing everyone,† the steward's daughter had shrieked at her. She went on and on. The Hound had broken down her door with a warhammer, she said. There were bodies on the stair of the Tower of the Hand, and the steps were slick with blood. Sansa dried her own tears as she struggled to comfort her friend. They went to sleep in the same bed, cradled in each other's arms like sisters. The second day was even worse. The room where Sansa had been confined was at the top of the highest tower of Maegor's Holdfast. From its window, she could see that the heavy iron portcullis in the gatehouse was down, and the drawbridge drawn up over the deep dry moat that separated the keep-within-a-keep from the larger castle that surrounded it. Lannister guardsmen prowled the walls with spears and crossbows to hand. The fighting was over, and the silence of the grave had settled over the Red Keep. The only sounds were Jeyne Poole's endless whimpers and sobs. They were fed—hard cheese and fresh-baked bread and milk to break their fast, roast chicken and greens at midday, and a late supper of beef and barley stew—but the servants who brought the meals would not answer Sansa's questions. That evening, some women brought her clothes from the Tower of the Hand, and some of Jeyne's things as well, but they seemed nearly as frightened as Jeyne, and when she tried to talk to them, they fled from her as if she had the grey plague. The guards outside the door still refused to let them leave the room. â€Å"Please, I need to speak to the queen again,† Sansa told them, as she told everyone she saw that day. â€Å"She'll want to talk to me, I know she will. Tell her I want to see her, please. If not the queen, then Prince Joffrey, if you'd be so kind. We're to marry when we're older.† At sunset on the second day, a great bell began to ring. Its voice was deep and sonorous, and the long slow clanging filled Sansa with a sense of dread. The ringing went on and on, and after a while they heard other bells answering from the Great Sept of Baelor on Visenya's Hill. The sound rumbled across the city like thunder, warning of the storm to come. â€Å"What is it?† Jeyne asked, covering her ears. â€Å"Why are they ringing the bells?† â€Å"The king is dead.† Sansa could not say how she knew it, yet she did. The slow, endless clanging filled their room, as mournful as a dirge. Had some enemy stormed the castle and murdered King Robert? Was that the meaning of the fighting they had heard? She went to sleep wondering, restless, and fearful. Was her beautiful Joffrey the king now? Or had they killed him too? She was afraid for him, and for her father. If only they would tell her what was happening . . . That night Sansa dreamt of Joffrey on the throne, with herself seated beside him in a gown of woven gold. She had a crown on her head, and everyone she had ever known came before her, to bend the knee and say their courtesies. The next morning, the morning of the third day, Ser Boros Blount of the Kingsguard came to escort her to the queen. Ser Boros was an ugly man with a broad chest and short, bandy legs. His nose was flat, his cheeks baggy with jowls, his hair grey and brittle. Today he wore white velvet, and his snowy cloak was fastened with a lion brooch. The beast had the soft sheen of gold, and his eyes were tiny rubies. â€Å"You look very handsome and splendid this morning, Ser Boros,† Sansa told him. A lady remembered her courtesies, and she was resolved to be a lady no matter what. â€Å"And you, my lady,† Ser Boros said in a flat voice. â€Å"Her Grace awaits. Come with me.† There were guards outside her door, Lannister men-at-arms in crimson cloaks and lion-crested helms. Sansa made herself smile at them pleasantly and bid them a good morning as she passed. It was the first time she had been allowed outside the chamber since Ser Arys Oakheart had led her there two mornings past. â€Å"To keep you safe, my sweet one,† Queen Cersei had told her. â€Å"Joffrey would never forgive me if anything happened to his precious.† Sansa had expected that Ser Boros would escort her to the royal apartments, but instead he led her out of Maegor's Holdfast. The bridge was down again. Some workmen were lowering a man on ropes into the depths of the dry moat. When Sansa peered down, she saw a body impaled on the huge iron spikes below. She averted her eyes quickly, afraid to ask, afraid to look too long, afraid he might be someone she knew. They found Queen Cersei in the council chambers, seated at the head of a long table littered with papers, candles, and blocks of sealing wax. The room was as splendid as any that Sansa had ever seen. She stared in awe at the carved wooden screen and the twin sphinxes that sat beside the door. â€Å"Your Grace,† Ser Boros said when they were ushered inside by another of the Kingsguard, Ser Mandon of the curiously dead face, â€Å"I've brought the girl.† Sansa had hoped Joffrey might be with her. Her prince was not there, but three of the king's councillors were. Lord Petyr Baelish sat on the queen's left hand, Grand Maester Pycelle at the end of the table, while Lord Varys hovered over them, smelling flowery. All of them were clad in black, she realized with a feeling of dread. Mourning clothes . . . The queen wore a high-collared black silk gown, with a hundred dark red rubies sewn into her bodice, covering her from neck to bosom. They were cut in the shape of teardrops, as if the queen were weeping blood. Cersei smiled to see her, and Sansa thought it was the sweetest and saddest smile she had ever seen. â€Å"Sansa, my sweet child,† she said, â€Å"I know you've been asking for me. I'm sorry that I could not send for you sooner. Matters have been very unsettled, and I have not had a moment. I trust my people have been taking good care of you?† â€Å"Everyone has been very sweet and pleasant, Your Grace, thank you ever so much for asking,† Sansa said politely. â€Å"Only, well, no one will talk to us or tell us what's happened . . . â€Å" â€Å"Us?† Cersei seemed puzzled. â€Å"We put the steward's girl in with her,† Ser Boros said. â€Å"We did not know what else to do with her.† The queen frowned. â€Å"Next time, you will ask,† she said, her voice sharp. â€Å"The gods only know what sort of tales she's been filling Sansa's head with.† â€Å"Jeyne's scared,† Sansa said. â€Å"She won't stop crying. I promised her I'd ask if she could see her father.† Old Grand Maester Pycelle lowered his eyes. â€Å"Her father is well, isn't he?† Sansa said anxiously. She knew there had been fighting, but surely no one would harm a steward. Vayon Poole did not even wear a sword. Queen Cersei looked at each of the councillors in turn. â€Å"I won't have Sansa fretting needlessly. What shall we do with this little friend of hers, my lords?† Lord Petyr leaned forward. â€Å"I'll find a place for her.† â€Å"Not in the city,† said the queen. â€Å"Do you take me for a fool?† The queen ignored that. â€Å"Ser Boros, escort this girl to Lord Petyr's apartments and instruct his people to keep her there until he comes for her. Tell her that Littlefinger will be taking her to see her father, that ought to calm her down. I want her gone before Sansa returns to her chamber.† â€Å"As you command, Your Grace,† Ser Boros said. He bowed deeply, spun on his heel, and took his leave, his long white cloak stirring the air behind him. Sansa was confused. â€Å"I don't understand,† she said. â€Å"Where is Jeyne's father? Why can't Ser Boros take her to him instead of Lord Petyr having to do it?† She had promised herself she would be a lady, gentle as the queen and as strong as her mother, the Lady Catelyn, but all of a sudden she was scared again. For a second she thought she might cry. â€Å"Where are you sending her? She hasn't done anything wrong, she's a good girl.† â€Å"She's upset you,† the queen said gently. â€Å"We can't be having that. Not another word, now. Lord Baelish will see that Jeyne's well taken care of, I promise you.† She patted the chair beside her. â€Å"Sit down, Sansa. I want to talk to you.† Sansa seated herself beside the queen. Cersei smiled again, but that did not make her feel any less anxious. Varys was wringing his soft hands together, Grand Maester Pycelle kept his sleepy eyes on the papers in front of him, but she could feel Littlefinger staring. Something about the way the small man looked at her made Sansa feel as though she had no clothes on. Goose bumps pimpled her skin. â€Å"Sweet Sansa,† Queen Cersei said, laying a soft hand on her wrist. â€Å"Such a beautiful child. I do hope you know how much Joffrey and I love you.† â€Å"You do?† Sansa said, breathless. Littlefinger was forgotten. Her prince loved her. Nothing else mattered. The queen smiled. â€Å"I think of you almost as my own daughter. And I know the love you bear for Joffrey.† She gave a weary shake of her head. â€Å"I am afraid we have some grave news about your lord father. You must be brave, child.† Her quiet words gave Sansa a chill. â€Å"What is it?† â€Å"Your father is a traitor, dear,† Lord Varys said. Grand Maester Pycelle lifted his ancient head. â€Å"With my own ears, I heard Lord Eddard swear to our beloved King Robert that he would protect the young princes as if they were his own sons. And yet the moment the king was dead, he called the small council together to steal Prince Joffrey's rightful throne.† â€Å"No,† Sansa blurted. â€Å"He wouldn't do that. He wouldn't!† The queen picked up a letter. The paper was torn and stiff with dried blood, but the broken seal was her father's, the direwolf stamped in pale wax. â€Å"We found this on the captain of your household guard, Sansa. It is a letter to my late husband's brother Stannis, inviting him to take the crown.† â€Å"Please, Your Grace, there's been a mistake.† Sudden panic made her dizzy and faint. â€Å"Please, send for my father, he'll tell you, he would never write such a letter, the king was his friend.† â€Å"Robert thought so,† said the queen. â€Å"This betrayal would have broken his heart. The gods are kind, that he did not live to see it.† She sighed. â€Å"Sansa, sweetling, you must see what a dreadful position this has left us in. You are innocent of any wrong, we all know that, and yet you are the daughter of a traitor. How can I allow you to marry my son?† â€Å"But I love him,† Sansa wailed, confused and frightened. What did they mean to do to her? What had they done to her father? It was not supposed to happen this way. She had to wed Joffrey, they were betrothed, he was promised to her, she had even dreamed about it. It wasn't fair to take him away from her on account of whatever her father might have done. â€Å"How well I know that, child,† Cersei said, her voice so kind and sweet. â€Å"Why else should you have come to me and told me of your father's plan to send you away from us, if not for love?† â€Å"It was for love,† Sansa said in a rush. â€Å"Father wouldn't even give me leave to say farewell.† She was the good girl, the obedient girl, but she had felt as wicked as Arya that morning, sneaking away from Septa Mordane, defying her lord father. She had never done anything so willful before, and she would never have done it then if she hadn't loved Joffrey as much as she did. â€Å"He was going to take me back to Winterfell and marry me to some hedge knight, even though it was Joff I wanted. I told him, but he wouldn't listen.† The king had been her last hope. The king could command Father to let her stay in King's Landing and marry Prince Joffrey, Sansa knew he could, but the king had always frightened her. He was loud and rough-voiced and drunk as often as not, and he would probably have just sent her back to Lord Eddard, if they even let her see him. So she went to the queen instead, and poured out her heart, and Cersei had listened and thanked her sw eetly . . . only then Ser Arys had escorted her to the high room in Maegor's Holdfast and posted guards, and a few hours later, the fighting had begun outside. â€Å"Please,† she finished, â€Å"you have to let me marry Joffrey, I'll be ever so good a wife to him, you'll see. I'll be a queen just like you, I promise.† Queen Cersei looked to the others. â€Å"My lords of the council, what do you say to her plea?† â€Å"The poor child,† murmured Varys. â€Å"A love so true and innocent, Your Grace, it would be cruel to deny it . . . and yet, what can we do? Her father stands condemned.† His soft hands washed each other in a gesture of helpless distress. â€Å"A child born of traitor's seed will find that betrayal comes naturally to her,† said Grand Maester Pycelle. â€Å"She is a sweet thing now, but in ten years, who can say what treasons she may hatch?† â€Å"No,† Sansa said, horrified. â€Å"I'm not, I'd never . . . I wouldn't betray Joffrey, I love him, I swear it, I do.† â€Å"Oh, so poignant,† said Varys. â€Å"And yet, it is truly said that blood runs truer than oaths.† â€Å"She reminds me of the mother, not the father,† Lord Petyr Baelish said quietly. â€Å"Look at her. The hair, the eyes. She is the very image of Cat at the same age.† The queen looked at her, troubled, and yet Sansa could see kindness in her clear green eyes. â€Å"Child,† she said, â€Å"if I could truly believe that you were not like your father, why nothing should please me more than to see you wed to my Joffrey. I know he loves you with all his heart.† She sighed. â€Å"And yet, I fear that Lord Varys and the Grand Maester have the right of it. The blood will tell. I have only to remember how your sister set her wolf on my son.† â€Å"I'm not like Arya,† Sansa blurted. â€Å"She has the traitor's blood, not me. I'm good, ask Septa Mordane, she'll tell you, I only want to be Joffrey's loyal and loving wife.† She felt the weight of Cersei's eyes as the queen studied her face. â€Å"I believe you mean it, child.† She turned to face the others. â€Å"My lords, it seems to me that if the rest of her kin were to remain loyal in this terrible time, that would go a long way toward laying our fears to rest.† Grand Maester Pycelle stroked his huge soft beard, his wide brow furrowed in thought. â€Å"Lord Eddard has three sons.† â€Å"Mere boys,† Lord Petyr said with a shrug. â€Å"I should be more concerned with Lady Catelyn and the Tullys.† The queen took Sansa's hand in both of hers. â€Å"Child, do you know your letters?† Sansa nodded nervously. She could read and write better than any of her brothers, although she was hopeless at sums. â€Å"I am pleased to hear that. Perhaps there is hope for you and Joffrey still . . . â€Å" â€Å"What do you want me to do?† â€Å"You must write your lady mother, and your brother, the eldest . . . what is his name?† â€Å"Robb,† Sansa said. â€Å"The word of your lord father's treason will no doubt reach them soon. Better that it should come from you. You must tell them how Lord Eddard betrayed his king.† Sansa wanted Joffrey desperately, but she did not think she had the courage to do as the queen was asking. â€Å"But he never . . . I don't . . . Your Grace, I wouldn't know what to say . . . â€Å" The queen patted her hand. â€Å"We will tell you what to write, child. The important thing is that you urge Lady Catelyn and your brother to keep the king's peace.† â€Å"It will go hard for them if they don't,† said Grand Maester Pycelle. â€Å"By the love you bear them, you must urge them to walk the path of wisdom.† â€Å"Your lady mother will no doubt fear for you dreadfully,† the queen said. â€Å"You must tell her that you are well and in our care, that we are treating you gently and seeing to your every want. Bid them to come to King's Landing and pledge their fealty to Joffrey when he takes his throne. If they do that . . . why, then we shall know that there is no taint in your blood, and when you come into the flower of your womanhood, you shall wed the king in the Great Sept of Baelor, before the eyes of gods and men.† . . . wed the king . . . The words made her breath come faster, yet still Sansa hesitated. â€Å"Perhaps . . . if I might see my father, talk to him about . . . â€Å" â€Å"Treason?† Lord Varys hinted. â€Å"You disappoint me, Sansa,† the queen said, with eyes gone hard as stones. â€Å"We've told you of your father's crimes. If you are truly as loyal as you say, why should you want to see him?† â€Å"I . . . I only meant . . . † Sansa felt her eyes grow wet. â€Å"He's not . . . please, he hasn't been . . . hurt, or . . . or . . . â€Å" â€Å"Lord Eddard has not been harmed,† the queen said. â€Å"But . . . what's to become of him?† â€Å"That is a matter for the king to decide,† Grand Maester Pycelle announced ponderously. The king! Sansa blinked back her tears. Joffrey was the king now, she thought. Her gallant prince would never hurt her father, no matter what he might have done. If she went to him and pleaded for mercy, she was certain he'd listen. He had to listen, he loved her, even the queen said so. Joff would need to punish Father, the lords would expect it, but perhaps he could send him back to Winterfell, or exile him to one of the Free Cities across the narrow sea. It would only have to be for a few years. By then she and Joffrey would be married. Once she was queen, she could persuade Joff to bring Father back and grant him a pardon. Only . . . if Mother or Robb did anything treasonous, called the banners or refused to swear fealty or anything, it would all go wrong. Her Joffrey was good and kind, she knew it in her heart, but a king had to be stern with rebels. She had to make them understand, she had to! â€Å"I'll . . . I'll write the letters,† Sansa told them. With a smile as warm as the sunrise, Cersei Lannister leaned close and kissed her gently on the cheek. â€Å"I knew you would. Joffrey will be so proud when I tell him what courage and good sense you've shown here today.† In the end, she wrote four letters. To her mother, the Lady Catelyn Stark, and to her brothers at Winterfell, and to her aunt and her grandfather as well, Lady Lysa Arryn of the Eyrie, and Lord Hoster Tully of Riverrun. By the time she had done, her fingers were cramped and stiff and stained with ink. Varys had her father's seal. She warmed the pale white beeswax over a candle, poured it carefully, and watched as the eunuch stamped each letter with the direwolf of House Stark. Jeyne Poole and all her things were gone when Ser Mandon Moore returned Sansa to the high tower of Maegor's Holdfast. No more weeping, she thought gratefully. Yet somehow it seemed colder with Jeyne gone, even after she'd built a fire. She pulled a chair close to the hearth, took down one of her favorite books, and lost herself in the stories of Florian and Jonquil, of Lady Shella and the Rainbow Knight, of valiant Prince Aemon and his doomed love for his brother's queen. It was not until later that night, as she was drifting off to sleep, that Sansa realized she had forgotten to ask about her sister.

Martin Luther King I Have a Dream Essay

2. In Martin Luther King Jr’s speech he uses a variety of vivid phrases that paint a picture for the audience. For example: â€Å"crippled by the manacles of segregation and the chains of discrimination† † the negro is still languishing in the corners of society and finds himself an exile in his own land† â€Å"let us not seek to satisfy our thirst for freedom by drinking from the cup of bitterness and hatred.† These phrases attribute to gaining his audience’s attention and emotion. 3. Primary points in his speech: African American individuals are being discriminated against in society, even though the emancipation proclamation granted all slaves citizenship. America will not be tranquil as long as there is segregation. MLK and his followers will only be a part of a peaceful protest. If America is to be a great nation freedom is imperative among all people. 4. It is clear that MLK is very passionate about what he says in his speech. While staying passionate, he understands that he will not win the war against segregation by being bitter and angry. My interpretation is that he is in a way confident that this issue will be resolved, and he knows that this ongoing issue will not be resolved immediately. 5. The audience in this case would be pretty much everybody in the United States at the time as well as us today. MLK probably didn’t know that his speech would make such a big impact in our world today, but his speech was aimed toward American society as a whole. 6. Without hesitation I will say that MLK does succeed with his message. Our country today has minimal racial injustice and people can be judged by their character. I think that the reason he has succeeded is attributed to his attitude and poise that he demonstrates during the speech. His message  would not have been accepted if he was to lash out in anger and criticize the white man.